Jiangsu Ankura Intelligent Power Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
56.50%
1 Week
55.55%
1 Month
53.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2017 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 53% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6110 | 5.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0877 | 9.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8363 | 83.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1205 | -4.27*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7476 | 13.70*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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