Jiangsu Ankura Intelligent Power Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
68.63%
increased by 0.57%
1 Week
62.33%
decreased by 5.73%
1 Month
50.74%
decreased by 17.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2017 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3676 | 9.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2886 | 35.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6357 | 57.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0125 | -0.93 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0932 | 12.41*** |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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