Jiangsu Ankura Intelligent Power Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
70.32%
decreased by 5.33%
1 Week
69.47%
decreased by 6.18%
1 Month
67.99%
decreased by 7.66%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2017 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8877 | 3.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1214 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7311 | 12.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1871 | -0.57 |
| γ2 | 0.4301 | 1.03 |
| γ3 | -0.6457 | -3.23*** |
| γ4 | 0.9011 | 3.60*** |
| γ5 | -0.8024 | -1.70* |
Persistence:
0.852
Half-life:
4 days
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