V-Lab
S&P/TSX 60 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
12.96%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
12.88%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
12.83%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0109 | 1.17 |
| βGARCH | 0.8404 | 66.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.1555 | 10.13*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0035 | 2.16** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0403 | 4.30*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9556 | 91.59*** |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0109 | 1.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8404 | 66.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1555 | 10.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0035 | 2.16** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0403 | 4.30*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9556 | 91.59*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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