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V-Lab
V-Lab

Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.52%

increased by 0.87%

1 Week

16.17%

increased by 1.52%

1 Month

17.86%

increased by 3.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 102% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 102% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.1148
4.74***
βGARCH0.7305
26.06***
γleverage0.1168
3.44***
λ₁tau intercept0.0118
1.62
λ₂forecast adj.0.0298
3.07***
λ₃tau persistence0.9649
79.56***

0.904

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1148
4.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7305
26.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1168
3.44***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0118
1.62
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0298
3.07***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9649
79.56***

Persistence:

0.904

Half-life:

7 days