V-Lab
Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.52%
increased by 0.87%
1 Week
16.17%
increased by 1.52%
1 Month
17.86%
increased by 3.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 102% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 102% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.1148 | 4.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7305 | 26.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.1168 | 3.44*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0118 | 1.62 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0298 | 3.07*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9649 | 79.56*** |
0.904
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1148 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7305 | 26.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1168 | 3.44*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0118 | 1.62 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0298 | 3.07*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9649 | 79.56*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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