V-Lab
US Dollar to Argentine Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
6.82%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
7.35%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
9.09%
increased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.2949 | 3.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.1446 | 7.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8477 | 41.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0941 | 2.70*** |
| γ2 | 0.0774 | 1.55 |
| γ3 | -0.3647 | -10.08*** |
| γ4 | 0.2528 | 6.76*** |
| γ5 | -0.0759 | -2.38** |
| γ6 | 0.1161 | 4.01*** |
| γ7 | -0.2393 | -7.38*** |
| γ8 | 0.2322 | 5.80*** |
| γ9 | -0.1275 | -4.53*** |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2949 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1446 | 7.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8477 | 41.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0941 | 2.70*** |
| γ2 | 0.0774 | 1.55 |
| γ3 | -0.3647 | -10.08*** |
| γ4 | 0.2528 | 6.76*** |
| γ5 | -0.0759 | -2.38** |
| γ6 | 0.1161 | 4.01*** |
| γ7 | -0.2393 | -7.38*** |
| γ8 | 0.2322 | 5.80*** |
| γ9 | -0.1275 | -4.53*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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