V-Lab
US Dollar to Argentine Peso EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
5.76%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
5.95%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
6.75%
increased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~96 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0170 | 1.29 |
| αARCH | 0.1892 | 3.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9928 | 470.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.0200 | 0.73 |
0.993
Persistence96d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0170 | 1.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1892 | 3.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9928 | 470.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0200 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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