V-Lab
US Dollar to Argentine Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
5.75%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
6.27%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
8.87%
increased by 2.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.2331 | 3.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7519 | 26.68*** |
| γleverage | -0.0585 | -0.73 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 1.25 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0745 | 4.35*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9255 | 54.99*** |
0.956
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2331 | 3.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7519 | 26.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0585 | -0.73 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0745 | 4.35*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9255 | 54.99*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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