V-Lab
US Dollar to Argentine Peso APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
5.54%
1 Week
5.54%
1 Month
5.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 5236224 trading days (~20778.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 1.25 |
| αARCH | 0.0653 | 6.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9297 | 100.93*** |
| γleverage | -0.1942 | -1.56 |
| δpower | 2.0841 | 8.36*** |
1.000
Persistence5236224d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 1.25 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0653 | 6.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9297 | 100.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1942 | -1.56 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0841 | 8.36*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5236224 days
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