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US Dollar to Argentine Peso APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

5.54%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

5.54%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

5.54%

decreased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Argentine Peso APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 5236224 trading days (~20778.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~5236224 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
1.25
αARCH0.0653
6.48***
βGARCH0.9297
100.93***
γleverage-0.1942
-1.56
δpower2.0841
8.36***

1.000

Persistence

5236224d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
1.25
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0653
6.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9297
100.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1942
-1.56
δ

power

Transformation power

2.0841
8.36***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

5236224 days