V-Lab
US Dollar to Argentine Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
5.35%
1 Week
5.35%
1 Month
5.35%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 1.60 |
| αARCH | 0.0936 | 5.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9329 | 133.82*** |
| γleverage | -0.0528 | -1.92* |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 1.60 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0936 | 5.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9329 | 133.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0528 | -1.92* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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