V-Lab
US Dollar to Argentine Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
6.46%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
6.94%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
8.51%
increased by 1.89%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~95 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7122 | 3.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.1484 | 7.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8444 | 42.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0035 | -0.07 |
| γ2 | 0.2810 | 3.88*** |
| γ3 | -0.5059 | -8.59*** |
| γ4 | 0.2692 | 5.05*** |
| γ5 | -0.0626 | -1.16 |
| γ6 | 0.0870 | 1.29 |
| γ7 | -0.0385 | -0.50 |
| γ8 | -0.1626 | -3.00*** |
| γ9 | 0.2660 | 7.40*** |
| γ10 | -0.2068 | -3.31*** |
0.993
Persistence95d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7122 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1484 | 7.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8444 | 42.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0035 | -0.07 |
| γ2 | 0.2810 | 3.88*** |
| γ3 | -0.5059 | -8.59*** |
| γ4 | 0.2692 | 5.05*** |
| γ5 | -0.0626 | -1.16 |
| γ6 | 0.0870 | 1.29 |
| γ7 | -0.0385 | -0.50 |
| γ8 | -0.1626 | -3.00*** |
| γ9 | 0.2660 | 7.40*** |
| γ10 | -0.2068 | -3.31*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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