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US Dollar to Argentine Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

6.46%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

6.94%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

8.51%

increased by 1.89%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Argentine Peso SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~95 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7122
3.40***
αARCH0.1484
7.53***
βGARCH0.8444
42.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0035
-0.07
γ20.2810
3.88***
γ3-0.5059
-8.59***
γ40.2692
5.05***
γ5-0.0626
-1.16
γ60.0870
1.29
γ7-0.0385
-0.50
γ8-0.1626
-3.00***
γ90.2660
7.40***
γ10-0.2068
-3.31***

0.993

Persistence

95d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7122
3.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1484
7.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8444
42.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0035
-0.07
γ20.2810
3.88***
γ3-0.5059
-8.59***
γ40.2692
5.05***
γ5-0.0626
-1.16
γ60.0870
1.29
γ7-0.0385
-0.50
γ8-0.1626
-3.00***
γ90.2660
7.40***
γ10-0.2068
-3.31***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

95 days