Skip to main content
V-Lab

Turkiye Sigorta As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

35.86%

decreased by 1.61%

1 Week

38.22%

increased by 0.75%

1 Month

41.61%

increased by 4.14%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Turkiye Sigorta As MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 29% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1424
26.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6681
60.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0409
4.65***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0165
2.52**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0131
5.69***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9852
364.23***

Persistence:

0.831

Half-life:

4 days