V-Lab
Turkiye Sigorta As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
35.86%
decreased by 1.61%
1 Week
38.22%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
41.61%
increased by 4.14%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 29% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1424 | 26.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6681 | 60.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0409 | 4.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0165 | 2.52** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0131 | 5.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9852 | 364.23*** |
Persistence:
0.831
Half-life:
4 days
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