V-Lab
Turkiye Sigorta As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
31.68%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Week
34.44%
increased by 1.60%
1 Month
38.10%
increased by 5.26%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 28% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1427 | 26.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6698 | 61.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0404 | 4.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0163 | 2.53** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0131 | 5.75*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9852 | 367.90*** |
Persistence:
0.833
Half-life:
4 days
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