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V-Lab

Turkiye Sigorta As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

31.72%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

35.19%

increased by 2.92%

1 Month

39.58%

increased by 7.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Turkiye Sigorta As MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 28% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1424
26.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6684
60.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0406
4.61***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0165
2.52**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0131
5.69***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9852
364.64***

Persistence:

0.831

Half-life:

4 days