V-Lab
Turkiye Sigorta As Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
34.95%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
34.69%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
33.85%
decreased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. The volatility power δ = 1.22 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0760 | 10.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1835 | 52.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8165 | 205.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0319 | -4.05*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2156 | 31.39*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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