V-Lab
Turkiye Sigorta As APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.22%
increased by 0.48%
1 Week
32.20%
increased by 2.46%
1 Month
38.70%
increased by 8.96%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. The volatility power δ = 1.60 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2051 | 14.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1259 | 29.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8696 | 216.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0128 | 0.88 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5963 | 37.05*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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