V-Lab
Turkiye Sigorta As GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.63%
increased by 1.16%
1 Week
31.72%
increased by 2.25%
1 Month
35.47%
increased by 6.00%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.9417 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0791 | 42.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9878 | 320.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5574 | 20.13*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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