V-Lab
Turkiye Sigorta As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
31.84%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Week
34.64%
increased by 1.73%
1 Month
39.09%
increased by 6.18%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5946 | 6.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1543 | 7.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7053 | 19.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0438 | 1.31 |
| γ2 | -0.1099 | -2.23** |
| γ3 | 0.1243 | 3.74*** |
| γ4 | -0.0975 | -3.17*** |
| γ5 | 0.0896 | 2.76*** |
| γ6 | -0.0569 | -1.81* |
| γ7 | -0.0256 | -0.87 |
| γ8 | 0.0486 | 2.19** |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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