V-Lab
Turkiye Sigorta As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
31.07%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
34.25%
increased by 2.61%
1 Month
39.21%
increased by 7.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5916 | 6.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1543 | 7.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7038 | 19.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0441 | 1.32 |
| γ2 | -0.1107 | -2.25** |
| γ3 | 0.1250 | 3.77*** |
| γ4 | -0.0980 | -3.20*** |
| γ5 | 0.0897 | 2.77*** |
| γ6 | -0.0566 | -1.80* |
| γ7 | -0.0249 | -0.84 |
| γ8 | 0.0471 | 2.11** |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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