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V-Lab

Turkiye Sigorta As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

35.05%

decreased by 1.54%

1 Week

37.21%

increased by 0.62%

1 Month

40.71%

increased by 4.12%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Turkiye Sigorta As S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5862
6.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1543
7.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7029
19.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0443
1.32
γ2-0.1112
-2.26**
γ30.1258
3.80***
γ4-0.0987
-3.22***
γ50.0900
2.78***
γ6-0.0560
-1.78*
γ7-0.0252
-0.84
γ80.0460
2.04**

Persistence:

0.857

Half-life:

4 days