V-Lab
Turkiye Sigorta As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
35.05%
decreased by 1.54%
1 Week
37.21%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
40.71%
increased by 4.12%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5862 | 6.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1543 | 7.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7029 | 19.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0443 | 1.32 |
| γ2 | -0.1112 | -2.26** |
| γ3 | 0.1258 | 3.80*** |
| γ4 | -0.0987 | -3.22*** |
| γ5 | 0.0900 | 2.78*** |
| γ6 | -0.0560 | -1.78* |
| γ7 | -0.0252 | -0.84 |
| γ8 | 0.0460 | 2.04** |
Persistence:
0.857
Half-life:
4 days
Other Turkiye Sigorta As Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities