V-Lab
Turkiye Sigorta As Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
30.52%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
33.63%
increased by 2.53%
1 Month
38.46%
increased by 7.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6335 | 6.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1546 | 7.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7031 | 19.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0542 | 1.63 |
| γ2 | -0.1272 | -2.61*** |
| γ3 | 0.1369 | 4.16*** |
| γ4 | -0.1077 | -3.53*** |
| γ5 | 0.0974 | 3.00*** |
| γ6 | -0.0624 | -1.92* |
| γ7 | -0.0198 | -0.55 |
| γ8 | 0.0383 | 0.72 |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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