V-Lab
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.12%
increased by 2.06%
1 Week
12.36%
increased by 2.30%
1 Month
13.08%
increased by 3.02%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8612 | 7.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.1001 | 9.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8632 | 69.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0739 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 0.1724 | 1.25 |
| γ3 | -0.1548 | -1.75* |
| γ4 | 0.0184 | 0.29 |
| γ5 | 0.1314 | 2.56** |
| γ6 | -0.1657 | -4.08*** |
| γ7 | 0.0679 | 1.58 |
| γ8 | 0.0544 | 1.10 |
| γ9 | -0.0946 | -1.76* |
| γ10 | 0.0628 | 1.62 |
0.963
Persistence19d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8612 | 7.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1001 | 9.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8632 | 69.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0739 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 0.1724 | 1.25 |
| γ3 | -0.1548 | -1.75* |
| γ4 | 0.0184 | 0.29 |
| γ5 | 0.1314 | 2.56** |
| γ6 | -0.1657 | -4.08*** |
| γ7 | 0.0679 | 1.58 |
| γ8 | 0.0544 | 1.10 |
| γ9 | -0.0946 | -1.76* |
| γ10 | 0.0628 | 1.62 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
Other Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices