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V-Lab
V-Lab

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

12.12%

increased by 2.06%

1 Week

12.36%

increased by 2.30%

1 Month

13.08%

increased by 3.02%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8612
7.36***
αARCH0.1001
9.67***
βGARCH0.8632
69.84***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0739
-0.89
γ20.1724
1.25
γ3-0.1548
-1.75*
γ40.0184
0.29
γ50.1314
2.56**
γ6-0.1657
-4.08***
γ70.0679
1.58
γ80.0544
1.10
γ9-0.0946
-1.76*
γ100.0628
1.62

0.963

Persistence

19d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8612
7.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1001
9.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8632
69.84***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0739
-0.89
γ20.1724
1.25
γ3-0.1548
-1.75*
γ40.0184
0.29
γ50.1314
2.56**
γ6-0.1657
-4.08***
γ70.0679
1.58
γ80.0544
1.10
γ9-0.0946
-1.76*
γ100.0628
1.62

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

19 days