V-Lab
S&P/TSX 60 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
13.35%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
13.42%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
13.63%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 08:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7852 | 5.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0981 | 9.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8669 | 74.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0048 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0825 | 1.37 |
| γ3 | -0.2075 | -5.33*** |
| γ4 | 0.2352 | 6.79*** |
| γ5 | -0.1719 | -4.78*** |
| γ6 | 0.0773 | 2.06** |
| γ7 | 0.0082 | 0.22 |
| γ8 | -0.0102 | -0.28 |
| γ9 | -0.0218 | -0.84 |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7852 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0981 | 9.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8669 | 74.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0048 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0825 | 1.37 |
| γ3 | -0.2075 | -5.33*** |
| γ4 | 0.2352 | 6.79*** |
| γ5 | -0.1719 | -4.78*** |
| γ6 | 0.0773 | 2.06** |
| γ7 | 0.0082 | 0.22 |
| γ8 | -0.0102 | -0.28 |
| γ9 | -0.0218 | -0.84 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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