V-Lab
S&P/TSX Composite Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
12.51%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
12.73%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
13.38%
increased by 0.72%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7437 | 4.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.1098 | 9.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8512 | 67.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0060 | 0.12 |
| γ2 | 0.0633 | 0.94 |
| γ3 | -0.1954 | -4.72*** |
| γ4 | 0.2392 | 6.69*** |
| γ5 | -0.1955 | -5.51*** |
| γ6 | 0.1007 | 2.65*** |
| γ7 | 0.0017 | 0.04 |
| γ8 | -0.0091 | -0.23 |
| γ9 | -0.0274 | -0.97 |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7437 | 4.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1098 | 9.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8512 | 67.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0060 | 0.12 |
| γ2 | 0.0633 | 0.94 |
| γ3 | -0.1954 | -4.72*** |
| γ4 | 0.2392 | 6.69*** |
| γ5 | -0.1955 | -5.51*** |
| γ6 | 0.1007 | 2.65*** |
| γ7 | 0.0017 | 0.04 |
| γ8 | -0.0091 | -0.23 |
| γ9 | -0.0274 | -0.97 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
Other S&P/TSX Composite Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices