V-Lab
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
34.40%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
34.40%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
34.44%
decreased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 14, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 119% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 119% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0412 | 3.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0438 | 3.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9215 | 99.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.0523 | 1.96** |
0.991
Persistence81d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0412 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0438 | 3.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9215 | 99.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0523 | 1.96** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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