V-Lab
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
34.47%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
34.94%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
36.55%
increased by 1.46%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 14, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9896 | 5.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0720 | 7.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9097 | 77.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0243 | -1.74* |
| γ2 | 0.0566 | 2.89*** |
| γ3 | -0.0487 | -5.07*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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