V-Lab
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
31.68%
increased by 0.81%
1 Week
31.75%
increased by 0.88%
1 Month
31.98%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 14, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 12.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~95 daysv = 12.21 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0542 | 2.09** |
| αARCH | 0.0722 | 8.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9927 | 233.75*** |
| νDF | 12.2056 | 0.89 |
0.993
Persistence95d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0542 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0722 | 8.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9927 | 233.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 12.2056 | 0.89 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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