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V-Lab

First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

32.63%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

32.68%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

32.85%

decreased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 14, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.76 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 117% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 117% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0391
4.04***
αARCH0.0727
6.21***
βGARCH0.9211
98.30***
γleverage0.2165
3.10***
δpower1.7597
6.58***

0.990

Persistence

71d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0391
4.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0727
6.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9211
98.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2165
3.10***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7597
6.58***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days