V-Lab
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
32.63%
1 Week
32.68%
1 Month
32.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 14, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.76 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 117% more than positive returns
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0391 | 4.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.0727 | 6.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9211 | 98.30*** |
| γleverage | 0.2165 | 3.10*** |
| δpower | 1.7597 | 6.58*** |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0391 | 4.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0727 | 6.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9211 | 98.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2165 | 3.10*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7597 | 6.58*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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