V-Lab
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
31.40%
decreased by 1.50%
1 Week
31.55%
decreased by 1.35%
1 Month
32.09%
decreased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 14, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.47) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0458 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0882 | 11.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8997 | 119.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4743 | 3.59*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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