V-Lab
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
32.03%
increased by 0.40%
1 Week
32.11%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
32.41%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 14, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~107 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0363 | 3.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0736 | 7.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9200 | 98.35*** |
0.994
Persistence107d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0363 | 3.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0736 | 7.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9200 | 98.35*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
107 days
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