V-Lab
OMX Stockholm 30 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
14.77%
increased by 0.81%
1 Week
14.94%
increased by 0.98%
1 Month
15.54%
increased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 49 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1795 | 8.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0878 | 11.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8982 | 105.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 1.79* |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1795 | 8.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0878 | 11.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8982 | 105.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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