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OMX Stockholm 30 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

15.13%

increased by 0.10%

1 Week

15.29%

increased by 0.26%

1 Month

15.84%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 05:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of OMX Stockholm 30 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 49 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1782
8.32***
αARCH0.0875
11.05***
βGARCH0.8985
106.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
1.79*

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1782
8.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0875
11.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8985
106.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
1.79*

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days