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V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

38.25%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Week

38.97%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

41.67%

increased by 2.75%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 167 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1354
19.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0881
25.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9089
520.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0022
-0.35

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

167 days