V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
38.25%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
38.97%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
41.67%
increased by 2.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 167 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1354 | 19.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0881 | 25.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9089 | 520.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0022 | -0.35 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
167 days
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