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V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

37.45%

increased by 2.08%

1 Week

38.19%

increased by 2.82%

1 Month

40.92%

increased by 5.55%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 168 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~168 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1337
4.87***
αARCH0.0877
6.36***
βGARCH0.9092
130.58***
γleverage-0.0021
-0.08

0.996

Persistence

168d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1337
4.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0877
6.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9092
130.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0021
-0.08

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

168 days