Modular Medical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
141.66%
increased by 2.20%
1 Week
141.43%
increased by 1.97%
1 Month
140.55%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~91 daysv = 3.53 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 62.5537 | 0.95 |
| αARCH | 0.0580 | 7.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9924 | 172.62*** |
| νDF | 3.5302 | 3.79*** |
0.992
Persistence91d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 62.5537 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0580 | 7.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9924 | 172.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5302 | 3.79*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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