Modular Medical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
141.67%
1 Week
141.43%
1 Month
140.50%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 62.5537 | 0.95 |
| αscore | 0.0580 | 7.90*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9924 | 172.62*** |
| νDF | 3.5302 | 3.79*** |
0.992
Persistence91d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 62.5537 | 0.95 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0580 | 7.90*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9924 | 172.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5302 | 3.79*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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