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Modular Medical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

134.49%

decreased by 5.97%

1 Week

134.33%

decreased by 6.13%

1 Month

133.73%

decreased by 6.73%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Modular Medical Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 10, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~87 daysv = 3.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst60.9756
0.92
αARCH0.0593
7.44***
βGARCH0.9921
161.47***
νDF3.5759
3.50***

0.992

Persistence

87d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

60.9756
0.92
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0593
7.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9921
161.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5759
3.50***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

87 days