V-Lab
Modular Medical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
134.49%
1 Week
134.33%
1 Month
133.73%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 60.9756 | 0.92 |
| αARCH | 0.0593 | 7.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9921 | 161.47*** |
| νDF | 3.5759 | 3.50*** |
0.992
Persistence87d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 60.9756 | 0.92 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0593 | 7.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9921 | 161.47*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5759 | 3.50*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
Other Modular Medical Inc Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equities