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Modular Medical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

141.66%

increased by 2.20%

1 Week

141.43%

increased by 1.97%

1 Month

140.55%

increased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Modular Medical Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 10, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~91 daysv = 3.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst62.5537
0.95
αARCH0.0580
7.90***
βGARCH0.9924
172.62***
νDF3.5302
3.79***

0.992

Persistence

91d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

62.5537
0.95
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0580
7.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9924
172.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5302
3.79***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

91 days