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Modular Medical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

141.67%

decreased by 5.80%

1 Week

141.43%

decreased by 6.04%

1 Month

140.50%

decreased by 6.97%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Modular Medical Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 10, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~91 daysv = 3.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run62.5537
0.95
αscore0.0580
7.90***
βpersistence0.9924
172.62***
νDF3.5302
3.79***

0.992

Persistence

91d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

62.5537
0.95
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0580
7.90***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9924
172.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5302
3.79***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

91 days