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Modular Medical Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

117.41%

decreased by 1.94%

1 Week

125.00%

increased by 5.65%

1 Month

128.43%

increased by 9.08%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Modular Medical Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 10, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6002
5.25***
αARCH0.1465
2.86***
βGARCH0.3499
1.79*
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ114.6030
4.38***
γ2-18.1625
-3.45***
γ33.1678
0.71
γ40.5418
0.12
γ5-3.7769
-0.91
γ69.9143
2.39**
γ7-10.7887
-2.67***
γ811.0773
1.94*
γ9-12.2730
-1.51
γ106.6148
1.06

0.496

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6002
5.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1465
2.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3499
1.79*
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ114.6030
4.38***
γ2-18.1625
-3.45***
γ33.1678
0.71
γ40.5418
0.12
γ5-3.7769
-0.91
γ69.9143
2.39**
γ7-10.7887
-2.67***
γ811.0773
1.94*
γ9-12.2730
-1.51
γ106.6148
1.06

Persistence:

0.496

Half-life:

1 days