Modular Medical Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
117.41%
decreased by 1.94%
1 Week
125.00%
increased by 5.65%
1 Month
128.43%
increased by 9.08%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6002 | 5.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.1465 | 2.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3499 | 1.79* |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 14.6030 | 4.38*** |
| γ2 | -18.1625 | -3.45*** |
| γ3 | 3.1678 | 0.71 |
| γ4 | 0.5418 | 0.12 |
| γ5 | -3.7769 | -0.91 |
| γ6 | 9.9143 | 2.39** |
| γ7 | -10.7887 | -2.67*** |
| γ8 | 11.0773 | 1.94* |
| γ9 | -12.2730 | -1.51 |
| γ10 | 6.6148 | 1.06 |
0.496
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6002 | 5.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1465 | 2.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3499 | 1.79* |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 14.6030 | 4.38*** |
| γ2 | -18.1625 | -3.45*** |
| γ3 | 3.1678 | 0.71 |
| γ4 | 0.5418 | 0.12 |
| γ5 | -3.7769 | -0.91 |
| γ6 | 9.9143 | 2.39** |
| γ7 | -10.7887 | -2.67*** |
| γ8 | 11.0773 | 1.94* |
| γ9 | -12.2730 | -1.51 |
| γ10 | 6.6148 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.496
Half-life:
1 days
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