Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Modular Medical Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

138.14%

decreased by 12.60%

1 Week

136.91%

decreased by 13.83%

1 Month

136.17%

decreased by 14.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Modular Medical Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 10, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9872
4.59***
αARCH0.1743
3.22***
βGARCH0.4049
2.76***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ11.9814
2.17**
γ2-3.7897
-2.92***
γ32.4884
2.68***
γ40.8407
0.62
γ5-3.7573
-1.42

0.579

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9872
4.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1743
3.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4049
2.76***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ11.9814
2.17**
γ2-3.7897
-2.92***
γ32.4884
2.68***
γ40.8407
0.62
γ5-3.7573
-1.42

Persistence:

0.579

Half-life:

1 days