Modular Medical Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
138.14%
decreased by 12.60%
1 Week
136.91%
decreased by 13.83%
1 Month
136.17%
decreased by 14.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9872 | 4.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.1743 | 3.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4049 | 2.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 1.9814 | 2.17** |
| γ2 | -3.7897 | -2.92*** |
| γ3 | 2.4884 | 2.68*** |
| γ4 | 0.8407 | 0.62 |
| γ5 | -3.7573 | -1.42 |
0.579
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9872 | 4.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1743 | 3.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4049 | 2.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 1.9814 | 2.17** |
| γ2 | -3.7897 | -2.92*** |
| γ3 | 2.4884 | 2.68*** |
| γ4 | 0.8407 | 0.62 |
| γ5 | -3.7573 | -1.42 |
Persistence:
0.579
Half-life:
1 days
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