Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P MidCap 400 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

24.12%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Week

23.98%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Month

23.48%

decreased by 1.68%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MidCap 400 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7774
9.79***
αARCH0.1023
10.92***
βGARCH0.8778
89.69***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-2.37**

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7774
9.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1023
10.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8778
89.69***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-2.37**

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days