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V-Lab

Gvs S P A MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

36.32%

decreased by 1.51%

1 Week

39.38%

increased by 1.55%

1 Month

41.49%

increased by 3.66%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Gvs S P A MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 213% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0878
6.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1166
1.79*
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1869
4.27***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

4.4359
0.11
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4224
0.11
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.298

Half-life:

1 days