V-Lab
Gvs S P A MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
35.58%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
39.29%
increased by 3.73%
1 Month
41.18%
increased by 5.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2020 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0876 | 1.89* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1165 | 0.77 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1877 | 1.38 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.3794 | 1.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4277 | 1.17 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.298
Half-life:
1 days
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