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V-Lab
V-Lab

Gvs S P A APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

27.56%

decreased by 1.50%

1 Week

29.18%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

35.00%

increased by 5.94%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Gvs S P A APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0621
1.94*
αARCH0.0750
3.06***
βGARCH0.9069
29.80***
γleverage0.3537
1.22
δpower0.5000
2.44**

0.968

Persistence

21d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0621
1.94*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0750
3.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9069
29.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3537
1.22
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
2.44**

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days