V-Lab
Gvs S P A APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
27.56%
1 Week
29.18%
1 Month
35.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0621 | 1.94* |
| αARCH | 0.0750 | 3.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9069 | 29.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.3537 | 1.22 |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 2.44** |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0621 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0750 | 3.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9069 | 29.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3537 | 1.22 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.44** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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