V-Lab
Gvs S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
28.77%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
29.52%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
32.01%
increased by 1.98%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 33-day half-lifev = 3.42 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 7.5419 | 0.75 |
| αARCH | 0.0565 | 3.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9791 | 35.10*** |
| νDF | 3.4150 | 1.91* |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.5419 | 0.75 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0565 | 3.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9791 | 35.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4150 | 1.91* |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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