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V-Lab

Gvs S P A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

32.46%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

33.65%

increased by 0.64%

1 Month

34.15%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Gvs S P A S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5497
6.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1582
2.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2992
1.42
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.2275
-3.72***
γ20.2823
3.68***

Persistence:

0.457

Half-life:

1 days