Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Gvs S P A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

29.83%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

32.52%

increased by 2.64%

1 Month

33.62%

increased by 3.74%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Gvs S P A S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5514
6.25***
αARCH0.1608
2.75***
βGARCH0.3010
1.46
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.2278
-3.80***
γ20.2836
3.78***

0.462

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5514
6.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1608
2.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3010
1.46
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.2278
-3.80***
γ20.2836
3.78***

Persistence:

0.462

Half-life:

1 days