V-Lab
Gvs S P A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
32.46%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
33.65%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
34.15%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5497 | 6.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1582 | 2.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2992 | 1.42 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.2275 | -3.72*** |
| γ2 | 0.2823 | 3.68*** |
Persistence:
0.457
Half-life:
1 days
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