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V-Lab
V-Lab

Gvs S P A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

30.89%

decreased by 1.68%

1 Week

32.60%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

33.32%

increased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Gvs S P A S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2020 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5532
6.28***
αARCH0.1622
2.77***
βGARCH0.3034
1.49
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.2271
-3.86***
γ20.2835
3.85***

0.466

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5532
6.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1622
2.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3034
1.49
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.2271
-3.86***
γ20.2835
3.85***

Persistence:

0.466

Half-life:

1 days