V-Lab
Gvs S P A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
30.89%
decreased by 1.68%
1 Week
32.60%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
33.32%
increased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2020 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5532 | 6.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.1622 | 2.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3034 | 1.49 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.2271 | -3.86*** |
| γ2 | 0.2835 | 3.85*** |
0.466
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5532 | 6.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1622 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3034 | 1.49 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.2271 | -3.86*** |
| γ2 | 0.2835 | 3.85*** |
Persistence:
0.466
Half-life:
1 days
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