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V-Lab
V-Lab

Gvs S P A Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

30.50%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

30.65%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Month

31.24%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Gvs S P A AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0182
2.68***
αARCH0.1266
4.77***
βGARCH0.8527
41.90***
γleverage0.0413
0.97

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0182
2.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1266
4.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8527
41.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0413
0.97

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days