V-Lab
Gvs S P A Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
31.14%
1 Week
29.05%
1 Month
23.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0293 | 3.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.2199 | 7.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7801 | 24.98*** |
| γleverage | 0.0532 | 0.96 |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 1.55 |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0293 | 3.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2199 | 7.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7801 | 24.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0532 | 0.96 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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