V-Lab
Gvs S P A Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
26.41%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
28.79%
increased by 2.32%
1 Month
29.78%
increased by 3.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5682 | 5.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.1599 | 2.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3110 | 1.52 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.1993 | -2.59*** |
| γ2 | 0.2075 | 1.54 |
0.471
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5682 | 5.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1599 | 2.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3110 | 1.52 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.1993 | -2.59*** |
| γ2 | 0.2075 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.471
Half-life:
1 days
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities