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V-Lab
V-Lab

Gvs S P A Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

26.41%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

28.79%

increased by 2.32%

1 Month

29.78%

increased by 3.31%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Gvs S P A SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5682
5.95***
αARCH0.1599
2.85***
βGARCH0.3110
1.52
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.1993
-2.59***
γ20.2075
1.54

0.471

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5682
5.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1599
2.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3110
1.52
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.1993
-2.59***
γ20.2075
1.54

Persistence:

0.471

Half-life:

1 days