iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
34.79%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Week
34.41%
decreased by 2.08%
1 Month
33.07%
decreased by 3.42%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 368% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0460 | 20.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0293 | 10.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8964 | 332.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1076 | 16.93*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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