V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
22.51%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
22.55%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
22.72%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 366% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 366% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0468 | 5.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.0293 | 2.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8958 | 83.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.1075 | 4.24*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0468 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0293 | 2.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8958 | 83.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1075 | 4.24*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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