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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

22.32%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Week

22.38%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Month

22.56%

decreased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 366% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 366% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0468
5.08***
αARCH0.0293
2.67***
βGARCH0.8959
83.58***
γleverage0.1073
4.23***

0.979

Persistence

32d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0468
5.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0293
2.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8959
83.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1073
4.23***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days