V-Lab
CRA International Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
45.05%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
45.06%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
45.11%
decreased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.1864 | 4.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0559 | 25.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9830 | 247.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4371 | 12.36*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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