V-Lab
CRA International Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
45.71%
increased by 0.17%
1 Week
44.65%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
41.96%
decreased by 3.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 19% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.29 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2309 | 18.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2148 | 50.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7475 | 143.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0658 | 7.89*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2890 | 29.78*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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