V-Lab
CRA International Inc EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
44.99%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
45.24%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
46.20%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 355% more than positive returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0242 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0502 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9911 | 705.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0321 | -8.38*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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