V-Lab
CRA International Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
32.34%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
33.84%
increased by 1.47%
1 Month
35.00%
increased by 2.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8777 | 8.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1355 | 4.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5386 | 6.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1246 | -6.65*** |
| γ2 | 0.2186 | 7.67*** |
| γ3 | -0.1742 | -7.85*** |
| γ4 | 0.1425 | 6.14*** |
| γ5 | -0.0963 | -3.71*** |
| γ6 | 0.0450 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.674
Half-life:
2 days
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