V-Lab
CRA International Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
36.07%
decreased by 2.27%
1 Week
37.67%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
38.90%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8674 | 8.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1332 | 4.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5354 | 6.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1271 | -6.83*** |
| γ2 | 0.2229 | 7.87*** |
| γ3 | -0.1781 | -8.03*** |
| γ4 | 0.1481 | 6.12*** |
| γ5 | -0.1069 | -3.46*** |
| γ6 | 0.0720 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.669
Half-life:
2 days
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