V-Lab
CRA International Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
35.90%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
38.25%
increased by 1.81%
1 Month
40.19%
increased by 3.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 123% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0894 | 10.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5366 | 31.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1100 | 8.67*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0206 | 0.47 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0080 | 0.95 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9893 | 74.88*** |
Persistence:
0.681
Half-life:
2 days
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