V-Lab
CRA International Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
46.22%
increased by 9.01%
1 Week
43.91%
increased by 6.70%
1 Month
42.08%
increased by 4.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 120% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0906 | 11.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5351 | 30.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1082 | 8.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0208 | 0.47 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0080 | 0.95 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9893 | 74.33*** |
Persistence:
0.680
Half-life:
2 days
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