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V-Lab

CRA International Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

48.49%

increased by 7.12%

1 Week

48.53%

increased by 7.16%

1 Month

48.60%

increased by 7.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CRA International Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 24, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 60% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.22 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4492
9.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1391
22.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7713
76.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1917
6.98***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2181
19.48***

Persistence:

0.885

Half-life:

6 days