V-Lab
Catalyst Media Group PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
45.65%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
50.06%
increased by 3.69%
1 Month
51.81%
increased by 5.44%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1039 | 6.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4559 | 12.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0391 | 1.62 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.9673 | 0.46 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4589 | 0.86 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.579
Half-life:
1 days
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