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V-Lab

Catalyst Media Group PLC APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026

1 Day

50.57%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Week

50.41%

decreased by 1.21%

1 Month

49.89%

decreased by 1.73%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 03:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Catalyst Media Group PLC APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. The volatility power δ = 2.24 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3711
1.19
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0351
1.34
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9287
35.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1633
1.20
δ

power

Transformation power

2.2417
3.14***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days