V-Lab
Catalyst Media Group PLC APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
50.57%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
50.41%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Month
49.89%
decreased by 1.73%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 03:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. The volatility power δ = 2.24 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3711 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0351 | 1.34 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9287 | 35.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1633 | 1.20 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.2417 | 3.14*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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