V-Lab
Catalyst Media Group PLC AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
44.76%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
45.58%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
47.64%
increased by 1.74%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6814 | 3.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0642 | 3.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8666 | 41.07*** |
| γleverage | 0.6395 | 0.46 |
0.931
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6814 | 3.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0642 | 3.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8666 | 41.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6395 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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